Thursday, February 17, 2011

Bulls Are Back: SPX 2,800 By 2013




So, I'm not the only crazy guy when I said the Dow will hit 36,000 by the end of this decade.  This market is very much like 1995.

3 comments:

  1. Beanie,

    Here's an article called "Sell American, Buffett Is"

    http://www.fallstreet.com/feb1611.php

    "In short, the problem of having more cash than ideas is not one that Mr. Buffett has had to deal with since he went on a buying binge in 2008. And while it is not known to what degree Buffett has reduced his personal exposure to equities, that Berkshire cannot find any equity bargains and is starting to hoard cash in a relatively big way is self explanatory: sell."

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  2. Is AAPL a BUY now?

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  3. Hmmmm....I lived and traded the 1995 market as I assume you did. On the surface there are similarities, but the drivers are less efficient and more fragile today than then.

    As I recall in 1995:

    Commodities were cheap, especially oil
    The baby boomers were just entering their peak earnings and productivity phase.
    Tech/internet/computer boom starting
    Budget was balanced - lots of headroom for GDP growth
    Historically low consumer debt
    U.S. at peace and defense budget declining
    401(k)'s/mutual funds money inflows starting steep incline
    Full employment
    A goldilocks mix of ag/manufacturing/service economy

    I could go on...but save for the alternate energy boom (which I agree with you could be/is a positive market driver), there is little today that remotely correlates with the positives listed above. QE17 could bring us to 2800 by 2013 but I shudder to think how hard the market crashes from that loft.

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